Sadr's strategy is self-serving, of course. By letting other militia groups exhaust themselves and bear the brunt of U.S. air strikes, the Sadrists would tend to emerge as the strongest and most influential force in Iraq. Bush would get to take credit for a decrease in violence for essentially doing nothing, and fewer people would die. It seemed like a good deal for all concerned, so Bush had to kill it.
In contrast to Britain's assurances that the handover of security to Iraqis would go smoothly, it now seems that 200 or more civilians have been killed in Basra in just the last month. Inter-Shia violence has also increased in a big way. Again, I feel compelled to point out that Iraq is more than just the city of Baghdad. While Baghdad has been effectively divided into ethnically-defined walled communities, it doesn't mean that people are getting along; they are only segregated. In Anbar, "progress" means that cars are not allowed in some cities for fear of car bombings. Again, it's not that people are getting along better. They are instead subject to greater opppression than they had under Saddam. With the south of the country headed toward a "gang war" between rival Shia militias and the north of the country facing the threat of Turkish military confrontation, it would hardly seem that we facing a period of relative stability and tranqulity. Yet this is what the neocons are pushing as the case. And, as I've said before, the Bush strategy is that, if the American public wants the troops home, they had better start talking up the "success" in Iraq. That seems to have been taken to heart by the U.S. media.
Meanwhile, the Iraqi government is not cohering in this alleged "stability". They are, in fact, scoring points domestically by stirring up anti-occupation resentment caused by the Nisoor Square killings. And if Turkey goes ahead with an invasion of Kurdistan, there goes the majority of the Iraqi Army, off to fight for their homeland. The majority of the Iraqi military (and the most effective part) is Kurdish peshmerga. Nobody is talking about the promised provincial elections any more, though this was one of the benchmarks that the surge was supposed to assure.
Also, in an attempt to reduce the number of troops being killed, the U.S. is moving toward the sharply increased use of air strikes against suspected targets. Civilians killed in these strikes are uniformly dubbed "Al-Qaeda" and "insurgents" by virtue of their deaths, and the neocons crow over each and every one as proof that 'victory' in imminent. Instead, it is driving the populace against the occupation, and the Iraqi government is capitalising on that resentment, though it is powerless to do much except ask us to please leave.
So, yes, now seems like the perfect time to force the Mahdi Army into a military confrontation that they don't want. If things go badly, we can always bomb Iran. That will somehow go unnoticed the Iraqi Shia majority.
Iraq Bomber Attacks Sunni Militant Group
BAGHDAD (AP) — A suicide bomber blew himself up near the headquarters of a nationalistic Sunni insurgent group that has turned against al-Qaida in Iraq north of Baghdad, killing a woman on her way to the market and wounding four other people, police said.
A spokesman for Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq's top Shiite cleric, called on the Iraqi government to stop violence he said was increasingly plaguing southern Iraq and warned the inaction could further alienate Iraqis from the political process.
Sheik Abdul-Mahdi al-Karbalai said 200 people were killed in the past three months in the city of Basra alone, in addition to kidnappings, and he accused the government of failing to hold the attackers accountable or to stop oil smuggling operations.
Al-Karbalai's figures could not be independently verified, but his complaint was a sign of growing frustration over rampant clashes and violence in the mainly Shiite south largely blamed on rival militia factions.
He urged Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and other political leaders "to activate the security operation and to hold lawbreakers accountable."
"It is the right of the citizen to enjoy stability and security. If these aspirations are not met, who will guarantee that the citizens will continue supporting the political process," al-Karbalai said.
In another sign of internal Shiite unrest, an aide to al-Sadr warned during his Friday sermon that a freeze on militia activities could be lifted if U.S. and Iraqi forces continue with detention campaigns against the movement.
Sheik Assad al-Nasseri also complained that an agreement to end violence between followers of al-Sadr and rival Shiite politician Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim had failed to yield tangible results.
"The reconciliation between the Sadrist movement and other sides did not have any noticeable effect except in some press statements," al-Nasseri said during Friday prayers in the holy city of Kufa.
Al-Sadr earlier this week renewed his appeal to his followers to uphold the six-month cease-fire announced in August and threatened to expel those who don't.
His office in the holy city of Najaf said the statement was issued in response to questions from supporters about whether the order to stand down still applied, even as U.S. forces appear to have escalated their campaign against what the military calls Iranian-backed breakaway militia factions, and clashes between Shiite groups are on the rise in parts of the mainly Shiite south.
Al-Nasseri acknowledged the raids had caused anger among the ranks and warned the freeze could be lifted.
"It was one decision which could end in one minute and then they will be sorry," he told worshippers in the Kufa mosque.
He blamed the security forces for killing civilians during the operations, singling out recent crackdowns against rival militia fighters in Diwaniyah and the holy city of Karbala.
"The detention campaigns against al-Sadr's people were not conducted according to issued arrest warrants as they claim," he said. "This issue went so far as to assault women and children in front of husbands, brothers and fathers. These are shameful things. ... They are more unjust to us than the Saddamists."
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