Fivethirtyeight.com has predictions for the midterms up.
MN-1: R+3.2 Hagedorn 51.6, Feehan 48.4
MN-2: D+2 Craig 52, Lewis 48
MN-3: D+4.8 Phillips 53.4, Paulsen 48.6
MN-4: D+37.7 McCollum 67, Ryan 29.3
MN-5: D+60.8 Omar 80.4, Zielinski 19.6
MN-6: R+26.8 Emmer 63.4, Todd 36.6
MN-7: D+10.2 Peterson 55.1, Hughes 44.9
MN-8: R+1.2 Stauber 48.6, Radinovich 47.4
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September polling:
MN-2 (9/23) SurveyUSA Craig 48, Lewis 45
MN-2 (9/29) PPP Craig 48, Lewis 45
MN-3 (9/18) PPP Phillips 52, Paulsen 39
MN-3 (9/9) Sienna Phillips 50, Paulsen 40
MN-8 (9/9) Sienna Radinovich 42, Stauber 43
Gov (9/8) Survey USA Walz 47, Johnson 40
Gov (9/12) Mason-Dixon Walz 45, Johnson 36
Sen (9/12) Mason-Dixon Smith 44, Housely 37
Sen (9/12) Mason-Dixon Klobuchar 60, Newberger 30
While we might lose MN-1 and MN-8, I think we will win MN-2 and definitely MN-3.
Getting rid of Paulsen will be huge. It will be a big blow to the MNGOP.
A defeat for Lewis would also be deeply symbolic, as he's tied himself strongly to Trump.
In 2014, MN-2 went for the Republicans by 17.17 points. In 2016, it went for Lewis by 1.79 points. He didn't even win a majority (46.95) in a strong year for the MNGOP. The trend doesn't look good for Republicans in this District.
Of course, we will also lock in Klobuchar for six years. And Smith will get two years, running as an incumbent in a presidential year election. We will hold on to the Governorship.
The MNGOP is loudly bragging about their chances to take the AG against Ellison, but I'm sceptical.
Stauber is a weak candidate in the 8th, and 2020 will not be kind to Trump-supporting candidates in MN.
Going deeper, this is Jeff Johnson's last shot, and he looks destined to defeat. His career for state-wide office is over. Housely will go down, putting an end to one of the few fairly prominent female MNGOP politicians. It remains to be seen what will become of a defeated Lewis; the MNGOP may have future plans for him elsewhere. Like Paulsen, he will probably pop up in a Senate or Governor's race.
